Bohannan to miss most of practice

By Brett Carlson

Fantasy Fishing players who currently have Greg Bohannan on their roster might be interested to hear that the Arkansas angler will be missing most, if not all, of the official four-day practice on Lake Norman leading up to the National Guard Open.

Bohannan has a pretty good excuse though – his wife, Holly, is due with the couple’s first child April 18. Bohannan found out his first youngster would be a boy the day after finishing as runner-up at the 2008 Stren Series Championship.

As is always the case, the Kellogg’s pro has a plan in place. Holly and the baby are ahead of schedule, according to their doctor. On April 15, Holly will be induced into labor. If all goes well, the entire Bohannan clan will leave their Rogers, Ark., home on the morning of Monday, April 20. Driving straight through from northwest Arkansas to Charlotte takes approximately 17 hours, but with a newborn it will undoubtedly take longer.

Bohannan said, ideally, he would get to put his boat in the water for a few hours on Tuesday before the lake goes off limits Wednesday. While this is clearly a joyful family time, Bohannan is currently 18th in the Land O’Lakes Angler of the Year race. If he can escape Norman with a respectable finish, he has the opportunity to do some serious damage at the Tour’s next stop on Beaver, his home lake.

“With a decent Norman tournament, I have a legitimate shot,” Bohannan said of Angler of the Year. “I have some experience there from last year, and I feel really confident right now with how I’m fishing. But without any practice this year, I would advise Fantasy Fishing players not to pick me (at Norman).”

Just because Bohannan says not to pick him doesn’t mean he’s not going to catch them. Of all the lakes on the FLW Tour schedule, Norman is probably the easiest to pattern – especially in the spawn and early postspawn stages. The Tour has visited each of the past two years, and it’s no secret that shaky heads, Senko-style plastics and swimbaits will be dominant.

“I’ll tell you this,” he added. “If you had to pick one lake in the entire country to go fish without practicing, it would be Norman. Just about everyone is going to catch five, and catching one 4-pounder behind a dock can change your whole tournament.”


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Norman bass are beginning to move up

Lake is behind schedule overall, sight-fishing likely to play a pivotal role

By Brett Carlson


We’re still roughly a month away from the start of the National Guard Open on Lake Norman, which is the third stop on the 2009 FLW Tour. Located just north of Charlotte, Norman has been on the schedule each of the past two years. Furthermore, both of those events were held in late April, which means there will be very few secrets for this event slated April 23-26. The big question leading up to the tournament, both for anglers and fantasy players, is whether or not the fish will be spawning.

Last year sight-fishing for bedding bass played a major role in Sean Hoernke’s winning pattern. According to a few Carolinians, the first wave of largemouths is already up making beds near the bank.

“The lower end of the lake turned on about a week ago,” said Conover, N.C., angler Brian Travis. “But there is a hot-water discharge down there. On the northern end the water is still in the high 50s and low 60s.”

Travis said the main wave has not happened yet, but it won’t be long.

“I think it is going to come the week before we get there (for the FLW Tour event). But it all depends on the weather. The thing about these Carolina lakes is that they spawn in several waves – the whole process can take more than a month.”

Barring a prolonged stretch of unseasonably warm weather, there will be at least some bass on beds come tournament time. But will they be tournament winning bass?

“The lake is a little bit behind overall,” added Travis. “That means we’ll hit at least part of the spawn, but those bedding fish will get beat to death. The quality bed fish are going to be the ones that move up during the tournament or just recently moved up – and there’s not going to be a ton of those. The guy that wins this one is going to need to be versatile.”

Despite only garnering 1 percent of the overall vote on the Fantasy Trend, Travis will be one to watch at Norman. He lives 15 minutes from the lake and has been fishing it for 20 years. Last weekend he took fifth place at the BFL event on nearby Lake Wylie with 17 pounds.

“Needless to say I’m pumped. I think I can catch a limit sight-fishing, but I plan to upgrade with other stuff.”

When asked if other stuff meant chasing an early-morning shad spawn along docks, Travis shrugged.

“I really think we’re going to miss most of the shad spawn – we’ll be too early. Last year during the tournament the shad spawn was strong on Wylie, but Wylie is always just ahead of Norman (in terms of seasonal movement).”



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Be wary of the bandwagon

By Patrick Baker


When it comes to crafting fantasy fishing teams, chasing your tail can leave you dizzy and disillusioned. It has been my experience that nothing can kill a hot streak faster than a bandwagon pick.

A classic example: Pro Brett Hite of Phoenix kicked off 2008 by winning the FLW Tour season opener on Lake Toho; two weeks later, he picked up his second tour-level win by ruling the FLW Series event on the California Delta. Believe me, this stunning feat got my attention – and turned the heads of thousands of other FLW Fantasy Fishing players.

We flocked to Hite in droves for the Tour’s second stop of the season, thinking we’d cash in on his great fortune. But remember how your mom was always asking if you’d follow your friends off a cliff? Well, we all fell together – and hard – when Hite posted a tragic 130th-place finish at Lewis Smith Lake.

And that’s certainly not to say pro bass anglers don’t get in the zone – most of the best will tell you it seems as though they are being guided by unseen forces, that their winning ways felt effortless as they were cruising toward victory in a four-day tournament through which most of the rest of the field was toiling.

So many of the top performers on the Tour have been in the zone; it’s just staying there that can be problematic. That’s why a third of the way into the 2009 FLW Fantasy Fishing season, it may be prudent to at least check the tires before jumping on a bandwagon.

Michael Bennett looks good for 2009’s stop No. 3 at Lake Norman for a number of reasons that actually have to do with fishing, and 80 percent of us FLW Fantasy Fishing pundits have him on our teams. Besides, he’s fresh off a top-10 finish at Table Rock, so why even give the pick a second thought, right?

If there’s anyone who can sustain a streak, it’s probably Bennett, arguably the best young pro fishing the Tour today, and certainly much more than a flavor of the week. Just look at his 2008 stats: nearly $1.2 million in prize money with three top-10 finishes on the Tour alone, including two wins, one of which was the pinnacle of professional bass fishing – the Forrest Wood Cup. But despite his championship win and ending the season ranked No. 9 among all pros, there were back-to-back missteps in the middle of the season where he finished closer to last than first.

From the fantasy side of things, that’s the problem with anglers who fish to win: They tend to be spectacular in their finishes, whether to the good or bad. I’m not saying hot streaks inevitably leave you cold, but you may want to approach them like your investment strategy – either cautiously or with full knowledge that valleys tend to follow peaks.


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Newell swipes Carlson’s sleeper

Up until today, veteran pundit Rob Newell had established a solid roster for Table Rock Lake consisting of a mix of Ozark anglers and FLW Tour sticks like Dave Lefebre, Michael Bennett and Clark Wendlandt.

But at the 11th hour Newell made an interesting switch-a-roo that included pulling Lefebre, Bennett and Larry Nixon and replacing them with Ott Defoe, Jeremiah Kindy and Robbie Dodson. Among these three, Dodson is the angler making the most noise. Until recently, I was the only pundit with Dodson on my list. In fact, I have the Harrison, Ark., pro winning the tournament and I’m more confident now than ever before.

Believe me, this has nothing to do with Newell joining the Dodson party. Per usual, he’s late. But in this case, late is better than never. Why? Because the forecasted cold front will play right into Dodson’s hands. These Table Rock locals want the coldest weather possible so that the active fish retreat from the shallows. Rather than being in 5 feet of water, these fish will likely position themselves in the 10- to 14-foot range suspended along points and channel swings.

A few weeks ago, Dodson had garnered hardly any votes in the Fantasy Trend. With one day left before the tournament commences, 26 percent of all Player’s Advantage members have him on their roster and overall he’s the 11th most popular pick. That’s a pretty impressive climb for a guy that’s fished only one FLW Tour event in his career. That number will surely continue to rise just like Randall Tharp did hours before the Guntersville deadline.

Pick Dodson, but don’t take Newell’s word for it – remember where you first heard the name. Unless of course he falters, then blame it on Newell.


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Last minute adjustments: replacing grinders with winders

Right or wrong, I’ve made last-minute adjustments to my Fantasy Fishing picks to reflect an “all in” attitude towards the Wiggle Wart bite on Table Rock Lake.

I kept my top five original picks but replaced my bottom five with more pros who will be burning the banks with a crankbait.

Originally I had Dave Lefebre, Larry Nixon and Michael Bennett in the top 10 for their superb ability to “grind out” bass from small areas when fishing is tough. I replaced them with Ott Defoe, Jeremiah Kindy and Robbie Dodson for one reason: the forecast.

Originally, I had my grinders in place just in case Table Rock got calm and sunny during the tournament – certain death for the Wiggle Wart bite. But looking ahead, the forecast is calling for brutally cold, cloudy and breezy conditions for the first two days – perfect for the Wiggle Wart contingent.

Now if the forecast had called for bright sun and light and variable winds then Nixon, Lefebre and Bennett would have stayed and probably moved up in my picks.

A couple of other factors pulling me towards the cranking crew are the off-limits day and the 150-man field.

I believe that with 50 less pros and the Wednesday off-limits day, this lets the lake kind of “reset” before competition begins. In the years when the FLW Tour carried a 200-man field straight from an extended practice right into the tournament, the lakes got extremely beat up and by day one of the tournament there were no shallow, aggressive fish left.

Now with a smaller field, a limited practice and a day off, shallower fish are more available. Add in the brutal weather coming and it all sets up for bank blitzers to come out on top, hence my final adjustments have been made.



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Flirting with the ‘Fritts Blitz’ for top spot

There’s no doubt, David Fritts of Lexington, North Carolina, is on a red-hot roll right now.

Indeed, the cranking king has dusted off his patented ‘Fritts Blitz’ style of fishing and banked well over a quarter of a million dollars with it in the last six months.

Fritts’ current momentum combined with the assertion that the FLW Tour event on Table Rock Lake this week is being called a “crankbait” event has led a lot of people to pick him to win at Table Rock as well.

But I would offer a word of caution against making Fritts your number one pick at the Rock.

In fact, I don’t even have Fritts in my top 10 this week, which has some people calling me out as being crazy. A few folks have even asked for an explanation as to why I would not pick David Fritts at Table Rock.

So here goes: For starters, Fritts style of cranking is more suited to eastern fisheries in states like North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia. Ozark impoundments have not been that kind to Fritts over the years, especially in the spring. In more than a decade of fishing Beaver Lake at the Walmart Open, for instance, Fritts highest finish has been 38th.

Also, Fritts is in his element when he is casting to a single object – a stump, a rock, a ledge, etc. – that is located offshore. He makes repeated casts to these isolated targets to get fish to bite.

Last fall, another David, David Curtis of Trinity, Texas, won the Stren Series Championship on Table Rock, by fishing this way with a crankbait and Carolina Rig on a river ledge.

But that was in the fall, and this is early spring and many pros have found the fish to be scattered down shallower banks. Catching these fish with a crankbait requires staying on the move and covering miles and miles of water – not sitting in one spot making repeated casts to the same object.

For me, too many factors are working against Fritts for him to win this event – it’s early spring in the Ozarks and fish are on the move. With that said, leaving him in as a top-10 pick is not a bad idea, though, simply because Fritts is indeed a momentum fisherman. When he gets on a roll, he gets on a sure enough roll that can last a whole season.


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No love for Blaylock

We’re less than a week away from the start of tournament No. 2 on the Walmart FLW Tour at beautiful Table Rock Lake in Branson, Mo. Thousands of fantasy fishing fans across the globe are in the frenetic process of creating, tweaking and fine-tuning their 10-man rosters.

At this stage in the game, one of my favorite Player’s Advantage tools is the Fantasy Trend. This tool is not subjective – it’s purely about the numbers. Fantasy Trend shows me the exact percentage of fantasy-fishing players who selected each pro angler. I don’t necessarily rely on it for my picks but I certainly find it entertaining as it gives me a good feel for who is picking who.

For example, only 3 percent of all fantasy-fishing players have picked local guide and bass-fishing legend Stacey King. But a whopping 30 percent of Player’s Advantage members have King on their roster.

But the one stat I simply can’t get my head around is Stetson Blaylock. To date, only 1 percent of all players picked Blaylock. Three percent of Player’s Advantage members picked the Berkley pro, but I still think that’s incredibly low. Outside of maybe Robbie Dodson and Greg Bohannan, he is my most confident top-10 pick.

Blaylock is not a true local and he doesn’t have a lot of experience on Table Rock, but the Arkansas and southern Missouri lakes fish very similarly. The humble 21-year-old does not feel slighted despite having only 1 percent of the vote.

“If I make a top 10 as a pro, then people will probably start noticing me,” Blaylock said en route to the lake. “I had a good tournament at Guntersville (finishing 23rd) but you need top 10s. To me, finishing 11th through 50th is all the same. You’re either in the top 10 or you’re not.”

Part of the reason I like Blaylock so much is his prowess with jerkbaits and crankbaits. He’s comfortable throwing reaction baits in clear, cold water, but won’t be so stubborn as to not try anything else.

“That’s how I’m planning to start tomorrow morning,” Blaylock said of jerks and cranks. “But the water is warming up and the fish could be biting plastics. With the warmer weather, I’m hoping they’ll be active in the creeks. Overall, I just like the way this tournament lays out.”

Blaylock said his biggest fear is the size of the lake. With only four days of practice, where do you begin and what if your two best spots are located 50 miles apart?

“You’ve just got to pick an area and fish. You’ve got to keep your baits wet – believe me you will not win this tournament by running every hour.”

I have Blaylock picked eighth. When asked if he liked that position he replied, “Yeah, that’s about right. I’m confident so you can pick me. But pick me low so I can just kind of squeak in.”

Outside of himself, the Benton, Ark., native recommends Bohannan, Brennan Bosley, Clark Wendlandt and Danny Pierce as a sleeper.


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Branson blasted with snow

If it feels like winter is refusing to loosen its grip in your neck of the woods, you’re likely not alone. This past week a powerful winter storm dumped nearly a foot of snow on Minnesota and Wisconsin and then made its way south towards the Ozarks. The snow began falling in Central Missouri Friday night and by noon Saturday there were reports of 4 to 5 inches near Branson.

Some areas in northeastern Arkansas got a whopping 10 inches of the white stuff. The overnight low temperatures for the weekend also dipped into the teens – pushing the Table Rock water temperatures into the low 40s. Typically, these are not conditions associated with tournament bass fishing.

But Table Rock Lake is unique in that cold conditions don’t necessarily translate into poor fishing. According to Rogers, Ark., pro Carl Svebek, the bass are going to bite regardless of the weather.

“Its already cold and we know the water temps are going to be pretty cool,” he said. “We’re still hoping for a warmup mainly for the sake of the fishermen, not the fish. Even if we get a stretch of warm weather the fish are not going to be up spawning. What the warmer weather will do is pull the fish shallower and hold them tighter to structure.”

Svebek also reiterated that the jerkbait will be the most popular lure and that largemouths will be the predominant species of bass at stop No. 2 on the FLW Tour.

“The jerkbait is going to be a lot like the Rat-L-Trap was at Guntersville, especially if it stays cold. I also look for spotted bass to play a role, more so than smallmouths. Some of the Table Rock spots are just fat. It is not uncommon to catch a 4-pound spot on Table Rock. The lake is definitely one of the best in this part of the country. There’s a very good chance at seeing several 20-pound sacks.”

The 10-day forecast for Branson calls for high temperatures in the 40s today and tomorrow but a drastic warmup is in store for the weekend with temps nearing 70. FLW Tour anglers will begin the four-day practice Saturday and wrap up Tuesday. Visit the exclusive video section for the latest on-the-water reports.


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Time for Table Rock

Now that the dust has settled after two of the sport’s premier events, the Chevy Open and the Bassmaster Classic, the fishing world will turn its attention to Branson, Mo., for stop No. 2 on the FLW Tour. Table Rock Lake is the host fishery and the White River impoundment is quite a bit different than Lake Guntersville.

Instead of expansive grass flats, Table Rock has a seemingly endless supply of points, bluff banks and chunk rock. Still, the water will be cold, the fish will be in prespawn mode and the majority of the field will be throwing reaction lures such as crankbaits and jerkbaits.

The event begins March 12 and the official four-day practice period runs from March 7-10. With practice starting a week from Saturday, it would be a good idea to begin formulating an initial roster of 10 anglers. Then after watching the on-the-water Player’s Advantage video, adjust your picks as you see fit.

My only advice for Table Rock is to look for pros that prefer fishing in the prespawn months and those who excel on clear-water impoundments. And for the David Fritts fans out there, the Table Rock bass will certainly bite a crankbait.


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Follow your gut

Sometimes going with your gut is as good as anything.

There’s no real science behind it, and sometimes in the case of fantasy prognostication, there may not even be some far-flung stats to warrant it – but it doesn’t change the fact that our guts sometimes know better than our heads.

Would I recommend letting the midsection make big life decisions? Of course not. But this is fantasy fishing, where we pick pros for a tournament – not picking a spouse or a house to make a home. And besides, we get 10 picks for each FLW Fantasy Fishing contest, so leaving one or two slots to intuition isn’t a crazy notion.

I put David Fritts on my pundit team for half the 2007 season (it was a more modest FLW contest then, not the high-stakes FLW Fantasy Fishing we’ve come to know and love), and he never finished better than 38th. I didn’t pick him at all last year, which was a good thing for the most part. But I really wanted to pick him again to start this year for some reason, but decided against it because Guntersville is known more as a grass lake than deep-water fishery. Big mistake.

I know, I know: woulda, coulda, shoulda. But this isn’t a pundit trying to play the “man, I had him on my list but took him off at the last minute” game – honestly. In fact, with the right research, I would have warranted the gut feeling by learning Fritts had two good Guntersville finishes in February under his belt. Also, I had picked him for stop No. 2 at Table Rock, partially based on a gut feeling, before Guntersville even kicked off.

But at the end of the day, I didn’t make the pick when it would have counted big time. Many others didn’t either: Only 40 percent of us “pundits” gave Fritts the nod, one in five Player’s Advantage members signed him up for their teams, and a scant 7 percent of non-Player’s Advantage players picked him – despite the fact that he’s won more FLW Tour events than any pro in the books. Look for that trend to change for Table Rock.

And as we all know, gut feelings are sometimes nothing more than an early-warning system for a stomach ache. But in fantasy sports, sometimes they outdo all the punditry and stat-crunching you can pack into a team – and it’s those moments where you end up outguessing the entire field.

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